Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <2 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 3 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 2 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 4+ | 27% YES | 73% NO |
The market concerns the number of calendar days in May 2026 when ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as a partial or full outage. OpenAI's status page will serve as the authoritative source, with only incidents explicitly listing ChatGPT under affected components counting toward resolution. The current order book implies a 30% probability of at least one outage day occurring during the month, suggesting traders assess the baseline reliability risk as relatively modest.
ChatGPT's historical uptime record provides context for calibrating this probability. Since its public launch in November 2022, the service has experienced sporadic outages, though major incidents affecting the core chat interface have been infrequent relative to total operating days. OpenAI has invested substantially in infrastructure redundancy and scaling, particularly following high-traffic periods in 2023. The 30% implied probability reflects expectations that May 2026 will follow established patterns of occasional but not severe disruptions.
Traders should monitor OpenAI's infrastructure announcements and scheduled maintenance windows as May approaches. Any public communications regarding data centre expansions, model deployments, or architectural changes could signal increased disruption risk. Additionally, broader cloud infrastructure incidents affecting OpenAI's hosting providers—particularly Microsoft Azure, given the companies' partnership—could cascade into ChatGPT availability issues. Market movements may also reflect seasonal patterns in API demand and OpenAI's historical incident frequency during specific quarters.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for gpt contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $258 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: