Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 2 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $370 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| $375 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $380 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| $385 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $390 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Alphabet Inc.'s share price on 2 June 2026 will determine whether GOOGL closes above a specified threshold on that date. The settlement uses the official closing price from the regular trading session, or the last valid on-exchange trade if no official close is published due to halts or other disruptions. The 4% implied probability reflects current order-book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing a relatively low likelihood of the stock reaching this level by the settlement window's end.
Historical volatility in mega-cap technology stocks suggests that single-day price movements of the magnitude required here occur infrequently without significant catalysts. GOOGL has historically exhibited daily moves exceeding 3–5% primarily around earnings announcements, regulatory developments, or broad market shocks. The current probability aligns with baseline expectations for an ordinary trading day absent material news, though the specific price threshold will determine whether this represents a realistic or extreme target.
Traders should monitor Alphabet's earnings calendar, any Department of Justice or regulatory announcements regarding antitrust matters, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled near the settlement date. Broader equity-market movements, particularly in technology indices, will influence intraday volatility and closing dynamics. Currency fluctuations affecting Alphabet's international revenue streams and any significant product announcements or management changes could shift momentum into early June 2026. The settlement's reliance on the official closing price means trading activity in the final minutes of the session will be material to resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Google (GOOGL) closes above 2026 on June 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for googl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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