Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| National + Maori | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| National + ACT + NZF | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Labour | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Labour + NZF | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Labour + Green + NZF | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Labour + Maori + NZF | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| National + NZF + Maori | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| National + ACT + NZF + Maori | 0% YES | 100% NO |
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026 to determine the composition of its next Parliament and, consequently, which coalition of parties will form government. The market settles on the identity of that ruling coalition, with the constraint that only parties holding Cabinet positions count as members—support arrangements without ministerial representation do not qualify. The 1% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders assess a specific coalition outcome as highly unlikely relative to alternatives.
New Zealand's electoral history since the 1996 introduction of mixed-member proportional representation shows coalition formation as routine. The Labour–Green coalition (2023–2024) and the subsequent National–ACT–New Zealand First arrangement (2024 onwards) illustrate the range of viable combinations. Minority governments supported by confidence-and-supply partners have also governed; however, the Cabinet-inclusion requirement here narrows the field. Historical precedent indicates that the largest party typically leads negotiations, though smaller parties with kingmaker status have secured disproportionate ministerial influence. The current 1% probability likely reflects either a highly specific coalition prediction or reflects low conviction across the order book.
Traders should monitor polling trends through 2026, leadership changes within the major parties (Labour, National, Greens, ACT, New Zealand First), and any shifts in inter-party relationships that signal coalition viability. The Electoral Commission publishes official candidate nominations and campaign finance disclosures. Movements in betting markets and media commentary on coalition arithmetic will provide real-time signals as election day approaches, particularly in the final months when coalition negotiations become concrete rather than speculative.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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