Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SPD | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Linke | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Party B | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party I | — | |
| Party L | — | |
| Party N | — | |
| Other | — | |
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a northeastern German state, will hold Landtag elections on 20 September 2026. The market currently prices the outcome at 11% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting the crowd's assessment that a single party will secure a plurality of seats. The settlement hinges on which party wins the greatest number of seats; a tie is resolved by popular vote share. If voting does not occur by 31 January 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
The 2021 Landtag election saw the SPD win 43 seats in a 101-seat parliament, followed by the CDU with 40 seats and the AfD with 25. Coalition-building proved complex, ultimately producing a three-party SPD–Greens–The Left government. Historical patterns in German state elections show that single-party pluralities are uncommon; most states require coalitions. The implied 11% probability reflects this structural reality—the crowd expects fragmentation across multiple parties rather than a clear winner.
Key developments to monitor include polling releases as 2026 progresses, leadership changes within major parties, and shifts in AfD support, which has grown substantially in eastern Germany since 2021. Federal political dynamics will influence state-level sentiment; any significant changes in Berlin's governing coalition or economic conditions could reshape voter preferences. The settlement window closes at midnight on 20 September 2026, with no extension mechanism beyond the January 2027 fallback date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$207K in lifetime turnover and $76K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: