Trade: Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $310K
- Total Volume
- $13K
- 24h Volume
- $120
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Gavin Newsom | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Pete Buttigieg | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Wes Moore | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Kamala Harris | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Andy Beshear | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Mark Cuban | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Raphael Warnock | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Tim Walz | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
The Democratic Party will formally nominate a Vice Presidential candidate during the 2028 election cycle. This market resolves to YES if a specific individual is nominated and accepts that nomination, with the settlement window closing on 10 August 2028, shortly after the Democratic National Convention typically concludes. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 8% probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the eventual nominee's identity and whether the nomination process proceeds as historically expected.
Historical precedent suggests Vice Presidential nominations are rarely contested at modern Democratic conventions. Since 1984, sitting or designated Vice Presidential candidates have faced no serious floor challenges, with nominees typically announced before or during the convention week. The 8% probability appears to price in scenarios where the nomination process experiences material disruption—such as the presumptive Presidential nominee withdrawing late in the cycle, creating genuine competition for the running mate slot, or procedural complications delaying formal acceptance. The 2024 cycle, where Vice President Kamala Harris selected Tim Walz with limited deliberation after becoming the presumptive nominee, exemplifies how quickly modern nominations can crystallise.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee, expected in summer 2028, as this directly determines who selects the Vice Presidential candidate. The Democratic National Convention scheduling, typically held in August, will establish the formal nomination date. Any unexpected developments affecting the presumptive Presidential nominee's viability—health concerns, political reversals, or primary dynamics—could introduce genuine uncertainty into what is ordinarily a procedurally straightforward nomination process.
Wikipedia Context
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Democratic Republic of the CongoThe Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), also known as the DR Congo, Congo-Kinshasa, or simply the Congo or less often Zaire, is a country in Central Africa. By land area, it is the second-largest country in Africa and the 11th-largest in the world. With a population of around 124 million people, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the fourth-most pop
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Democratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is a liberal political party in the United States, sitting on the center to center-left of the political spectrum. Founded in 1828, it is the world's oldest active political party. Its main rival is the Republican Party, and since the 1850s both have dominated American politics.
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Democratic-Republican PartyThe Democratic-Republican Party, known at the time as the Republican Party, was an American political party founded by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison in the early 1790s. It championed liberalism, republicanism, individual liberty, equal rights, separation of church and state, freedom of religion, anti-clericalism, emancipation of religious minorities, de
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Democratic Socialists of AmericaThe Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is a socialist political organization in the United States. It is the country's largest socialist organization, with more than 100,000 members as of February 2026. A big tent on the left wing of the political spectrum, DSA is primarily organized around the principles of democratic socialism, with its members active
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Democratic VP Nominee 2028" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$13K in lifetime turnover and $310K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $120 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 August 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Democratic VP Nominee 2028"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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