Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sloviansk | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Sumy | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Druzkhivka | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Dopropillia | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Kramatorsk | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Kharkiv | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Kherson | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Zaporizhia | 17% YES | 83% NO |
Russia's territorial advance in Ukraine remains the central variable for this market. The 24% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about whether Russian forces will capture additional Ukrainian cities or settlements beyond their present holdings by year-end 2026. The resolution mechanism ties directly to the Institute for the Study of War's publicly available map, which tracks territorial control through satellite imagery and field reporting, providing an objective standard independent of political claims.
Historical precedent suggests Russian advances occur in phases tied to military capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and international support flows. The 2022 rapid territorial gains followed by 2023's grinding attrition offer contrasting models. Comparable conflicts show that 24-month windows can produce substantial territorial shifts when one side maintains numerical or logistical advantage, though Ukraine's defensive fortification and Western military aid have constrained Russian gains since mid-2022. The current probability implies traders assess meaningful but not overwhelming likelihood of further Russian territorial capture.
Catalysts to monitor include announcements regarding Western military aid packages, particularly air defence systems and long-range precision weapons, which directly affect Ukrainian holding capacity. Developments in Russian mobilisation capability and casualty replacement rates will shape offensive sustainability. The timing of any major diplomatic initiatives or ceasefire negotiations could fundamentally alter trajectory. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets tracking frontline positions will provide real-time context for assessing whether current momentum favours further Russian advances or stabilisation of existing lines through 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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