Trade: Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

Opened 7 November 2025 · Settles 31 December 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

June 30	0% YES	100% NO
March 31	0% YES	100% NO
Before 2027	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

The market concerns whether a nuclear weapon will be detonated anywhere globally between November 2025 and June 2026, encompassing offensive use, authorised testing, or accidental detonation. The 0% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing an exceptionally low likelihood of such an event within this specific six-month window.

Historical precedent suggests extreme rarity of nuclear detonations outside controlled testing regimes. Since 1945, only two nuclear weapons have been used in warfare—Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Testing programmes largely ceased after the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty opened for signature in 1996, with the last acknowledged test conducted by North Korea in 2017. Accidental detonations remain extraordinarily rare due to multiple safety interlocks in modern arsenals. The baseline historical frequency of detonation events is substantially lower than many other low-probability geopolitical outcomes, which partially explains the market's pricing.

Traders monitoring this market should track escalation signals in active conflicts involving nuclear-armed states, particularly developments in Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, and South Asia. The International Atomic Energy Agency's statements on nuclear facility security and any announcements regarding nuclear testing resumption would move probabilities materially. Recent reporting on North Korean weapons development and Russian nuclear rhetoric during the Ukraine conflict provides context, though sustained tensions have not yet translated into detonation events. Unexpected military incidents, command-and-control failures, or explicit policy shifts by nuclear powers would represent the primary catalysts for significant probability repricing.

Wikipedia Context

Nuclear weapon
A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either nuclear fission or a combination of fission and nuclear fusion reactions, producing a nuclear explosion. Both bomb types release large quantities of energy from relatively small amounts of matter. Nine sovereign states are believed to possess nuclear wea
Nuclear weapons of the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom became the third country to develop and, in 1952, test nuclear weapons. The UK is one of nine nuclear-armed states, and one of five recognized by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. As of 2025, the UK possesses a stockpile of approximately 225 warheads, with 120 deployed on its only delivery system, the Trident programm
Nuclear weapons of the United States
The United States holds the second largest arsenal of nuclear weapons among the nine nuclear-armed countries. Under the Manhattan Project, the United States became the first country to manufacture nuclear weapons and remains the only country to have used them in combat, with the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II against Japan. In total it co
Nuclear weapon design
Nuclear weapons design means the physical, chemical, and engineering arrangements that cause the physics package of a nuclear weapon to detonate. There are three existing basic design types:Pure fission weapons are the simplest, least technically demanding, were the first nuclear weapons built, and so far the only type ever used in warfare, by the United Sta

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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