Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤-0.4% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| -0.3– -0.1% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 0.0–0.2% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 0.3–0.5% | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 0.6–0.8% | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| 0.9–1.1% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 1.2%+ | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Japan's Cabinet Office will release its first preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for Q1 2026 on 19 May 2026. The market settles on Japan's year-over-year real GDP growth rate as reported in the official Quarterly Estimates of GDP release, specifically the figure from table 1-2 covering the original series. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 16% probability that this growth rate will exceed the threshold specified in the market's resolution criteria.
Japan's recent economic performance provides context for interpreting this probability. Through 2024 and into 2025, Japan's year-over-year real GDP growth has fluctuated between roughly 1% and 2.5%, with quarterly volatility driven by consumption patterns, export demand, and base effects. The 16% implied probability suggests traders expect Q1 2026 growth to fall below historical recent averages, potentially reflecting seasonal weakness or global economic headwinds anticipated for early 2026.
Key catalysts for traders to monitor include the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and any revisions to growth forecasts by Japanese economic institutions ahead of May. External factors—particularly US economic data, which influences Japanese export demand—and any significant yen movements will affect growth trajectories. The preliminary estimate released in May will itself be subject to revision in subsequent Cabinet Office releases, though this market settles on the first preliminary figure only. Current market pricing reflects expectations of subdued growth relative to recent performance, though the specific threshold determining YES or NO resolution remains critical to interpreting whether 16% represents consensus pessimism or undervaluation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for gdp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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