Trade: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, scheduled for May 16 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| NRFI | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Market context
The Texas Rangers travel to Houston for an AL West divisional matchup on 16 May at 7:10 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Rangers victory, indicating near-parity in market expectations. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as participants price in available information about roster composition, recent form, and ballpark factors.
Historically, Rangers-Astros games have shown modest home-field advantage, with Houston winning approximately 52–54% of their home contests against divisional opponents over recent seasons. The current 48% probability for Texas suggests the market is pricing in some combination of travel fatigue, Houston's home-field edge, and relative recent performance. Both teams' records heading into May will significantly influence whether this probability drifts, as will any late roster moves or injury announcements in the days preceding the fixture.
Traders should monitor pitching assignments, which typically become official 24–48 hours before game time. Starting pitcher quality has historically been the primary driver of outcome variance in Rangers-Astros matchups. Weather conditions at Minute Maid Park—particularly humidity and wind patterns affecting ball carry—can also shift expectations. Any injury updates to key position players or bullpen availability will likely trigger order book movement. The settlement window extends to 23 May, allowing for potential postponements due to weather or other scheduling disruptions common in May baseball.
Wikipedia Context
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Texas Rangers (baseball)The Texas Rangers are an American professional baseball team based in the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. The Rangers compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) West Division. The team was founded as the Washington Senators in 1961, an expansion team awarded to Washington, D.C., after the previous Senators incarnation mo
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Texas Ranger DivisionThe Texas Ranger Division, also known as the Texas Rangers and nicknamed the Diablos Tejanos, is an investigative law enforcement agency with statewide jurisdiction in the U.S. state of Texas, based in the capital city Austin. The Texas Rangers have investigated crimes ranging from murder to political corruption, acted in riot control and as detectives, prot
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Texas Rangers minor league players
Below are select minor league players and the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Texas Rangers:
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Texas Rangers award winners and league leaders
This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Texas Rangers baseball team.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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