Trade: LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Ultra Prime and Oh My God in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 15 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ultra Prime" if Ultra Prime win the match against Oh My God. This market will resolve to "Oh My God" if Oh My God win the match against Ultra Prime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $51
- 24h Volume
- $14
- Open Interest
- $51
Market outcomes
| Game Handicap: OMG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5) | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Ultra Prime and Oh My God are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Nirvana competition on 15 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 30% probability of Ultra Prime victory, reflecting market participants' assessment that Oh My God enters as the favoured side. This pricing reflects both teams' recent form, roster composition, and head-to-head records within the LPL's competitive structure.
Historical LPL Group stage matches between mid-tier organisations typically see significant variance in outcome prediction, particularly when one team carries stronger recent momentum. Ultra Prime's 30% implied probability sits within the range observed for underdog positioning in comparable fixtures, where teams with less consistent playoff records face opponents with stronger domestic credentials. The spread suggests market confidence in Oh My God's superiority rather than overwhelming certainty.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and any schedule changes through official LPL communications channels in the days preceding the match. Injury reports, substitution decisions, or last-minute coaching adjustments can shift the order book substantially, particularly given the tight settlement window. The match's position within the broader Group Nirvana standings may also influence team preparation intensity. Any postponement beyond seven days without a determined winner would trigger a 50-50 resolution, a tail risk currently priced into the order book's depth.
Wikipedia Context
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Radmila Lolly
Radmila Lolly is a Russian–American singer, songwriter, and fashion designer. She is a Billboard charting artist, with her song "MAGIC" charting on the Billboard Mainstream Top 40 Indicator chart, as well as her songs "U R Moving Me" and "Tonight" charting on Billboard Dance Club Songs list at positions 21 and 40 respectively. Her two studio albums were prem
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Ramon LlullRamon Llull, sometimes anglicized as Raymond Lully, was a Catholic philosopher, theologian, poet, missionary, apologist and former knight, born in Palma de Majorca. He invented a philosophical system known as the Art, conceived as a type of universal logic to prove the truth of Christian doctrine to interlocutors of all faiths and nationalities. The Art cons
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La Ultra
La Ultra is an Ultramarathon and running event held in the Ladakh region of Indian Administered Kashmir. The marathon subjects participants to extreme climate, distances of up to 555 kms, and altitudes of up 17,500 ft and is deemed one of the toughest runs in the world.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$51 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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