Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, June 27, 2026 between Algeria and Austria.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Algeria | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Draw (Algeria vs. Austria) | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Austria | 42% YES | 58% NO |
Algeria and Austria are scheduled to meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 27 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices an Algeria victory at 40%, implying Austria are favoured at roughly 35% with the remaining probability distributed to draws. This reflects Austria's stronger recent competitive record and higher FIFA ranking, though group-stage football carries inherent volatility that keeps the market relatively balanced.
Algeria reached the 2014 and 2018 World Cups but exited in the group stage both times, whilst Austria qualified for Euro 2020 and 2024, reaching the knockout round in 2020. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse, with their last competitive fixture in 2011. Austria's qualification pathway through UEFA suggests a more consistent qualifying performance, though Algeria's 2019 Africa Cup of Nations victory demonstrated they remain capable of tournament success. The 40% probability for Algeria reflects genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through early 2026, particularly for Austria's key attacking players and Algeria's defensive stability. Group composition remains a critical variable—the identities of the other two teams in their group will shape match importance and tactical approach. Fixture scheduling within the group window may also influence team rotation decisions. Recent form in qualifying rounds and any managerial changes closer to the tournament will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current market pricing.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Algeria vs. Austria" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$166 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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