Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Brazil Série A game between CA Paranaense and Mirassol FC, scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC match originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
CA Paranaense will face Mirassol FC in a Série A fixture on 30 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The market currently reflects a 48% implied probability for the listed exact-score outcomes, with the remaining probability distributed across "Any Other Score." This pricing emerges from Polymarket's order book activity, where traders are pricing the likelihood that the match concludes with one of the explicitly enumerated scorelines rather than an unlisted result.
Exact-score markets in Brazilian football typically see wide probability distributions across multiple outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty in final tallies. Historical Série A matches between comparable sides show that roughly 35–50% of fixtures resolve to outcomes outside the top five most common scorelines, depending on team quality differential and tactical approach. The current 48% probability suggests traders view this matchup as relatively balanced in terms of likely outcomes, with no single scoreline commanding dominant backing on the order book.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries and squad rotation in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly for key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the Brazilian calendar often influences tactical selection and player availability. Additionally, any weather alerts or pitch condition reports closer to match day could shift expectations around goal-scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 30 May, allowing traders to adjust positions based on confirmed lineups and pre-match conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $518 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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