Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/CAD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/CAD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑1.70 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑1.60 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑1.55 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| ↑1.50 | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| ↑1.45 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| ↑1.42 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| ↑1.39 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓1.33 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
The USD/CAD exchange rate will need to reach a specified level at some point during 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. Currently, the order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 6% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders that the pair will touch this level within the settlement window. The probability is formed through active bidding and asking on the platform's order book, where traders continuously adjust positions based on their assessments of macroeconomic conditions and technical levels.
Historical USD/CAD volatility provides context for evaluating this threshold. The pair has traded in a range of roughly 1.20 to 1.45 over the past decade, with major moves typically driven by divergences in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, commodity price swings (particularly crude oil), and broader risk sentiment. The 6% probability suggests the specified price level lies outside the consensus range for 2026, though not impossibly so given the pair's demonstrated capacity for significant intra-year moves.
Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy announcements, particularly any signals regarding interest rate trajectories. Employment data releases, inflation reports, and oil price movements will influence USD/CAD direction materially. Geopolitical developments affecting North American trade relationships, including any tariff announcements or trade negotiations, could also trigger sharp moves. The finalization mechanism—requiring an hourly candle high on Investing.com to reach the level—means even brief spikes count, creating potential for resolution through intraday volatility rather than sustained directional moves.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for foreign exchange contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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