Trade: Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Take-Two's net bookings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $91
- Total Volume
- $4
- 24h Volume
- $4
- Open Interest
- $4
Market outcomes
| $1.50B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $1.55B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $1.60B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $1.65B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $1.70B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Market context
Take-Two Interactive's fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 concludes in March 2026, with earnings typically reported in May. The market resolves based on net bookings—revenue recognised across the company's portfolio including Grand Theft Auto, NBA 2K, and Red Dead Redemption franchises—as disclosed in official earnings materials. Settlement occurs on 21 May 2026, allowing for standard post-quarter reporting timelines.
Take-Two's historical net bookings show volatility tied to major release cycles. FY2025 guidance and prior quarters demonstrate the company's sensitivity to franchise launches and recurrent revenue streams. The 40% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around the specific threshold being tested; comparable quarters have ranged significantly depending on whether major releases coincide with the Q4 window. Traders should reference Take-Two's most recent earnings calls and forward guidance to calibrate expectations against the threshold amount.
Key catalysts include any mid-cycle franchise announcements, particularly for Grand Theft Auto Online or NBA 2K's seasonal content roadmap, which drive bookings recognition timing. The company's investor relations calendar and any strategic partnerships or acquisition activity could shift revenue recognition patterns. Industry-wide factors—including consumer spending trends and competitive releases from rivals like Embracer Group—will influence overall performance. Polymarket's current order book formation at 40% YES reflects meaningful disagreement on whether net bookings will exceed the specified level, suggesting the threshold sits near consensus expectations.
Wikipedia Context
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Take-Two InteractiveTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc., sometimes shortened to Take 2 Interactive or T2, is an American video game holding company based in New York City founded by Ryan Brant in September 1993.
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Take Two (TV series)Take Two is an American crime comedy-drama television series. Created by Andrew W. Marlowe and Terri Edda Miller, the creator and executive producer of Castle respectively, it stars Rachel Bilson and Eddie Cibrian. It premiered on ABC in the United States on June 21, 2018. In November 2018, the series was canceled after one season.
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Take Two (song)"Take Two" is a song by South Korean boy band BTS, released as a single on June 9, 2023, through Big Hit Music. Its release is part of the band's 10th anniversary celebrations. The song was co-written by members RM and J-Hope, and produced by Suga.
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Take Two with Phineas and FerbTake Two with Phineas and Ferb is a live-action/animated hybrid short-form talk show series that premiered on Disney Channel on December 3, 2010. It is a spin-off of the animated series Phineas and Ferb and revolves around the two animated characters Phineas and Ferb interviewing live-action celebrities, a premise which bears similarities to that of the late
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4 in lifetime turnover and $91 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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