Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑$200B | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| ↓$75B | 81% YES | 19% NO |
| ↓$70B | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| ↓$65B | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| ↑$175B | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| ↑$125B | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| ↑$110B | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| ↑$150B | 52% YES | 48% NO |
Anduril Industries, the defence technology firm founded by Palmer Luckey, is being valued through Nasdaq Private Market's daily pricing mechanism. The market is assessing whether the company's private valuation will reach a specified threshold at any point between now and the end of 2026. Current order book depth on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this valuation target as unlikely within the timeframe, though not negligible.
Private defence contractors have historically demonstrated volatile valuation trajectories, particularly those with government contracting exposure. Comparables like Palantir Technologies and Axiom Space show wide ranges between private and public valuations, with timing and market conditions heavily influencing outcomes. Anduril's previous funding rounds and secondary market transactions provide anchors for assessing whether the specified threshold represents a modest increase or a substantial revaluation. The 8% probability implies the market views the target as requiring either exceptional growth catalysts or a significant shift in investor sentiment.
Key variables include contract wins from the Department of Defence, which would directly impact revenue visibility and investor appetite for secondary transactions. Anduril announced expanded partnerships with allied nations' defence ministries in 2024, and further international orders could strengthen valuation claims. Additionally, broader venture capital appetite for defence technology, regulatory changes affecting autonomous systems procurement, and potential secondary funding rounds would all influence NPM pricing. Traders should monitor quarterly contract announcements and defence spending appropriations, as these typically drive repricing in private defence markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Anduril's valuation hit 2027 by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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