Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Quantum Computing is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Quantum Computing's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Quantum Computing reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Quantum Computing releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Quantum Computing (QUBT) beat quarterly earnings? | 58% YES | 42% NO |
Quantum Computing Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 11 May, with the Street consensus forecasting a loss of $0.05 per share on a GAAP basis. The market resolves "Yes" if the company beats this consensus figure—that is, reports EPS greater than −$0.05. Currently, Polymarket's order book implies a 58% probability of an earnings beat, reflecting moderate confidence that the company will either narrow losses or post a smaller loss than expected.
Quantum computing firms have historically demonstrated volatile earnings trajectories as the sector matures from research-heavy to commercialisation phases. Companies in this space often miss consensus estimates when hardware development timelines slip or customer adoption lags projections. However, consensus estimates for unprofitable firms tend to be conservative, creating a structural bias towards beats when companies simply execute on existing guidance. The current 58% probability sits between a coin flip and a strong lean towards outperformance, suggesting traders view Quantum Computing's execution risk as moderate rather than acute.
Key catalysts include any pre-earnings announcements regarding customer wins, partnership expansions, or revised guidance. Quantum Computing's recent investor communications and product roadmap updates will shape expectations heading into the release. The company's cash position and quarterly burn rate also matter; if the firm has signalled cost controls or improved operational efficiency, traders may price in a higher likelihood of beating depressed consensus. Traders should monitor sector-wide developments affecting quantum hardware demand, as macroeconomic shifts or competing announcements from rivals could shift positioning in the final weeks before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Quantum Computing (QUBT) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6 in lifetime turnover and $148 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 58%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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