Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 3, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on June 3, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 3? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natural gas futures will close on 3 June 2026, and this market resolves based on whether that day's settlement price for the active contract exceeds the prior trading day's close. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about intraday directional movement, with balanced liquidity between buyers and sellers at parity. Natural gas exhibits pronounced seasonal and weather-driven volatility; June typically marks the transition into summer demand patterns, when cooling-season consumption begins to dominate pricing dynamics.
Historical precedent suggests single-day moves in natural gas futures cluster around 1–3% in normal conditions, though larger swings occur around inventory reports and weather forecasts. The 50–50 split implies traders expect no systematic bias toward either direction on that specific date. Comparable single-day resolution markets on energy commodities tend to reflect this equilibrium when no major scheduled event falls directly on the settlement date.
Key catalysts to monitor include the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly natural gas storage report, which typically releases Thursdays and can shift sentiment ahead of Friday or Monday closes. Weather forecasts for the following week, particularly temperature anomalies across major consumption centres, influence positioning. Any unexpected supply disruptions or production changes reported in the days preceding 3 June would also move the contract. Traders should track implied volatility in the options market as an indicator of expected price range; elevated volatility would suggest larger single-day moves are priced in.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $18 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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