Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Databricks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kraken | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Neuralink | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Perplexity | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Stripe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Anduril | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Canva | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market seeks to identify which privately held company will hold the largest valuation according to NPM data on 30 June 2026. This requires tracking the private market capitalisation landscape across venture-backed firms, late-stage startups, and companies that have chosen to remain private despite sufficient scale for public listing. The 3% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty about which entity will top the rankings at that specific date, suggesting the order book currently prices this as a low-conviction outcome relative to alternatives.
Historical precedent shows private company valuations shift considerably over 18-month windows. OpenAI, Stripe, and SpaceX have each held the largest private valuation at different points in recent years, with rankings reshuffled by funding rounds, secondary market transactions, and macroeconomic shifts affecting venture capital deployment. The current probability distribution likely concentrates mass on established mega-cap private firms rather than emerging challengers, though funding announcements or valuation adjustments in the interim could materially alter standings.
Traders should monitor venture funding announcements, secondary market transactions, and any IPO activity that might remove contenders from private status before the settlement date. Regulatory changes affecting private company disclosure requirements, shifts in venture capital availability, and sector-specific developments in AI infrastructure, fintech, and biotech will influence which firms command premium valuations. The reliance on NPM data introduces dependency on their publication schedule; any gaps in reporting through early July could affect resolution mechanics, making data availability itself a minor trading consideration.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Largest private company end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$62K in lifetime turnover and $99K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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