Trade: Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Consolidated Edison is estimated to release earnings on May 7, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Consolidated Edison’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.26 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Consolidated Edison reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.26 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Consolidated Edison releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Consolidated Edison will report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 7 May, with the Street consensus forecasting non-GAAP EPS of $2.26. The market resolves "Yes" only if reported earnings exceed this consensus figure. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an earnings beat, reflecting either substantial confidence in consensus accuracy or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price.
Historically, utility stocks like Consolidated Edison exhibit lower earnings volatility than broader markets, with beats and misses clustering around consensus within tight ranges. Over the past eight quarters, ED has beaten consensus roughly 50% of the time, though margins have typically been narrow—often under 2% above the Street estimate. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either a miss or a precise match to consensus, which is atypical given the company's historical beat frequency and the inherent uncertainty in quarterly results.
Key catalysts include any regulatory announcements affecting rate structures in New York, operational disruptions or weather-related impacts on demand, and commodity price movements influencing fuel costs. ED's earnings depend partly on weather patterns during the quarter and any unexpected infrastructure investments or maintenance costs. Traders should monitor utility sector commentary from earnings season peers, as regional economic conditions and energy demand trends could shift the earnings outlook before 7 May.
Wikipedia Context
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Consolidated EdisonConsolidated Edison, Inc., commonly known as Con Edison or ConEd, is an energy company based in New York City. It is one of the largest investor-owned energy companies in the United States, with approximately $15.26 billion in annual revenues as of 2024, and over $70 billion in assets. The company provides a wide range of energy-related products and services
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Consolidated Edison BuildingThe Consolidated Edison Building is a neoclassical skyscraper in the Gramercy neighborhood of Manhattan in New York City, United States. The 26-story building was designed by the architectural firms of Warren and Wetmore and Henry Janeway Hardenbergh. The building takes up the western two-thirds of the block bounded by 14th Street to the south, Irving Place
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Consolidated Edison Co. v. Public Service Commission
Consolidated Edison Co. v. Public Service Commission, 447 U.S. 530 (1980), was a United States Supreme Court decision addressing the free speech rights of public utility corporations under the First Amendment. In a majority opinion written by Justice Lewis Powell, the Court invalidated an order by the New York Public Service Commission that prohibited utilit
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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