Trade: DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The United States Department of Justice recently opened, and later dropped, a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his handling of renovations to the Federal Reserve buildings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice reopens this criminal investigation of Powell, or opens a new criminal investigation of Powell, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell, this will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- $572
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| May 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
The Department of Justice previously opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding his management of building renovation projects at Federal Reserve facilities. That investigation was subsequently closed without charges. This market concerns whether the DOJ will reopen that same investigation or initiate a new criminal inquiry into Powell by 30 June 2026, including scenarios where formal charges or an indictment are announced.
Historical precedent suggests criminal investigations into sitting Federal Reserve chairs are exceptionally rare. The last significant criminal investigation of a Fed chair occurred decades ago, and prosecutions of sitting central bank leaders in developed democracies remain extraordinarily uncommon. The previous closure of Powell's investigation without charges, combined with the absence of new public allegations or evidence since that closure, establishes a baseline of low institutional pressure for reopening. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this historical rarity and the lack of immediate triggering events.
Traders monitoring this market should track any significant congressional investigations, media revelations regarding the renovation projects, or shifts in DOJ leadership that might alter prosecutorial priorities. Powell's term as Fed chair extends through May 2026, placing the resolution window within his tenure. Changes to the political environment or discovery of material new evidence would represent the primary catalysts for movement. The absence of recent reporting on the renovation matter or DOJ activity suggests the investigation remains closed, supporting the current probability assessment on the order book.
Wikipedia Context
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Doors Open Saskatoon is a biannual event held in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, that gives the public access to many of the city's unique or historically significant buildings. Admission is free of charge. The one day even occurs every two years.
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A Door OpensA Door Opens is a 1933 German thriller film directed by Alfred Zeisler and starring Hermann Speelmans, Fritz Odemar and Oskar Sima. It was shot at the Babelsberg Studios of UFA in Berlin. The film's sets were designed by the art director Otto Hunte.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fed chair contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $572 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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