Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $20M | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| $30M | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| $40M | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| $50M | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| $70M | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| $100M | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| $150M | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $200M | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Cambria's governance token will launch with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) calculated from total token supply multiplied by the opening price. The market settles based on whether that FDV exceeds a specified threshold at 4:00 PM ET on the day following public trading commencement. Resolution hinges on identifying the most liquid price source once the token becomes actively tradable across exchanges.
Token launch valuations typically reflect a combination of pre-launch fundraising rounds, market sentiment toward comparable gaming and governance tokens, and initial liquidity conditions. Recent gaming token launches have shown considerable variance in opening FDV relative to earlier valuation rounds, with some trading significantly above Series funding valuations whilst others have faced downward pressure. The current 59% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view the threshold as moderately likely to be exceeded, though substantial uncertainty remains around launch-day price discovery and initial trading volumes.
Key variables affecting settlement include the timing of the launch announcement, the size of initial liquidity pools across major exchanges, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions in the weeks preceding deployment. Traders should monitor Cambria's official communications for launch scheduling, details of token distribution to early supporters, and any material updates regarding the project's development roadmap. Market depth on Polymarket itself will tighten as the launch date approaches, reflecting real-time shifts in trader conviction as new information emerges.
Adele Cambria was an Italian journalist, writer and actress.
Cambria Farm is the site of a Bronze, Iron Age, Roman rural settlement, between Ruishton and Taunton, Somerset, England.
Cambria Cavern was a small limestone solutional cave which was discovered on 8 February 2018 when a portion of the cave's roof collapsed, causing sinkhole opened up in a residential area in Round Rock, Texas. To stabilize the road and utility lines above the cave, the cave was partially filled with concrete and sealed.
Frederick Dennis Cambria is a former baseball player, a right-handed pitcher who appeared in 6 games — five as a starting pitcher — for the 1970 Pittsburgh Pirates. He stood 6 feet 2 inches (1.88 m) tall, weighed 195 pounds (88 kg) and attended St. Leo University.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $791 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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