Trade: Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $9K
- Total Volume
- $69K
- 24h Volume
- $7K
- Open Interest
- $18K
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2.0M | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| ↑ 1.8M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 1.6M | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| ↑ 1.9M | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| ↓ 1.7M | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| ↓ 1.5M | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
The Iranian rial has depreciated significantly against the US dollar over the past decade, driven by sanctions, capital flight, and monetary expansion. This market tests whether the rial will weaken further to a specified level by end-May 2026. The settlement mechanism uses Bonbast's daily free-market rates, which reflect actual trading conditions rather than official pegged rates, making this a genuine measure of market sentiment towards Iranian currency stability.
Historical context shows the rial traded around 24,000 per dollar in 2015 following the nuclear deal, then collapsed to over 300,000 per dollar by 2023 as sanctions tightened and inflation accelerated. The current 48% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether further depreciation will occur within the specified timeframe. Comparable currency crises in emerging markets suggest that once depreciation accelerates, reversals require substantial policy shifts or external capital inflows—both unlikely given Iran's geopolitical position.
Key catalysts for traders include US sanctions policy announcements, which directly affect capital flows and dollar demand; Iranian monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Iran; and broader regional developments affecting oil prices and foreign exchange reserves. Recent reporting indicates Iran's forex reserves remain constrained, limiting intervention capacity. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing roughly eighteen months for either stabilisation attempts or continued depreciation, making this sensitive to both domestic Iranian policy changes and shifts in US-Iran relations.
Wikipedia Context
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USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63)USS Kitty Hawk, formerly CVA-63, was a United States Navy supercarrier. She was the second naval ship named after Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the site of the Wright brothers' first powered airplane flight. The lead ship of her class, Kitty Hawk was the first of the three Kitty Hawk-class aircraft carriers to be commissioned and the last to be decommissioned.
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USS Kitty Hawk riotThe USS Kitty Hawk riot was a racial conflict between white and Black crewmen aboard the United States Navy aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk on the night of 12–13 October 1972, while positioned in the Gulf of Tonkin off the coast of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. In a retrospective article many years later, the Navy Times, called it "the worst shipboard ri
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USS Fitzgerald and MV ACX Crystal collisionEarly on 17 June 2017, the United States Navy destroyer USS Fitzgerald collided with MV ACX Crystal, a Philippine-flagged container ship, about 80 nautical miles southwest of Tokyo, Japan; 10 nautical miles southeast of the city of Shimoda on the Japanese mainland (Honshu).
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USS Little Rock (CL-92)USS Little Rock (CL-92/CLG-4/CG-4) is a Cleveland-class light cruiser and one of 27 completed for the United States Navy during or shortly after World War II. She is one of six to be converted to guided missile cruisers and the first US Navy ship to be named for Little Rock, Arkansas. Commissioned in mid-1945, she was completed too late to see combat duty du
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$69K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for exchange rate contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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