Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Australia | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| Luxembourg | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Malta | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| Romania | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| Ukraine | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Albania | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| Bulgaria | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Czechia | 76% YES | 25% NO |
The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 will feature two semi-final rounds on consecutive evenings, with the second semi-final scheduled for 12 May 2026. Countries competing in this round will vie for advancement to the grand final on 14 May, with both automatic qualifiers and those selected by jury and public vote progressing. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 96% implied probability that the listed candidates advance, suggesting market participants assess a high likelihood of progression for the specified nations in this semi-final.
Historical Eurovision data demonstrates that semi-final advancement rates vary significantly by country profile. Established broadcasters with prior contest experience typically advance at rates exceeding 90%, whilst newer or less-resourced participants face lower progression odds. The 96% probability currently priced likely reflects a basket weighted towards countries with stronger track records, established fan bases, or favourable scheduling positions within the semi-final draw. Previous contests show that semi-final outcomes depend heavily on the specific competing field, with approximately 10 of 16–20 participants advancing to the final.
Traders should monitor the official Eurovision Song Contest announcements regarding the semi-final running order, which affects visibility and voting patterns. The allocation of countries to the first or second semi-final, combined with the performance sequence within that semi-final, materially influences advancement prospects. Any withdrawals or disqualifications of competing nations would alter the competitive landscape. The settlement window closes 14 May 2026, providing traders with real-time resolution immediately following the semi-final results broadcast.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$350K in lifetime turnover and $110K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for eurovision contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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