Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on June 3?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 1,950 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| ↑ 1,900 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| ↓ 1,800 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| ↓ 1,750 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↓ 1,700 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 1,650 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 1,600 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Ethereum's price action on 3 June 2026 will be determined by broader crypto market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and any protocol-specific developments occurring in the months leading to that date. The current order book on Polymarket prices a 10% implied probability, reflecting trader scepticism that Ethereum will reach the threshold specified in the market's settlement criteria—though the exact price level is not disclosed in the available market description.
Historical precedent suggests that Ethereum's daily price movements of sufficient magnitude to trigger binary outcomes typically require either significant market-wide volatility or material news regarding the protocol itself. During 2024–2025, Ethereum has experienced periods of consolidation punctuated by sharp moves tied to Federal Reserve policy shifts, spot ETF inflows, or developments in layer-two scaling adoption. The current 10% probability implies traders view the specified price target as an outlier outcome relative to the baseline distribution of June 2026 prices.
Key catalysts to monitor include Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrade schedules, regulatory announcements affecting staking or smart contract activity, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk appetite in digital assets. Bitcoin's price trajectory will remain a primary driver of Ethereum's directional bias, given their historical correlation. Any material shifts in institutional adoption or changes to proof-of-stake validator economics could alter the probability distribution meaningfully ahead of the settlement window closing on 4 June 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $70K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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