Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,900 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on Ethereum's ETH/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 8 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current state of liquidity and positioning among traders; such extreme probabilities typically indicate either minimal trading activity or a consensus view that certain price brackets are implausible given prevailing market conditions.
Ethereum's price discovery over multi-year horizons has historically been shaped by network upgrades, macroeconomic sentiment, and Bitcoin's directional bias. The May 2026 settlement window sits roughly two years forward, making near-term technical patterns less predictive than medium-term catalysts. Previous instances of extreme probability clustering—such as during periods of low volume or when resolution brackets span wide ranges—have occasionally reversed sharply once fresh capital enters the order book or material news surfaces.
Traders monitoring this market should track Ethereum's protocol developments, including any major upgrades or changes to staking mechanisms, alongside broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and regulatory announcements. Macroeconomic conditions, particularly interest rate expectations and risk appetite in traditional markets, will likely influence Ethereum's valuation trajectory through 2026. The current zero probability may simply reflect that no traders have yet committed capital to specific price brackets, leaving the order book unpriced rather than indicating genuine market consensus about May 2026 outcomes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$231K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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