Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2,700-2,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >2,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot price at noon Eastern Time on 10 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle close. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are currently pricing in any meaningful likelihood of the specified outcome occurring at that precise time and venue. With over eighteen months until settlement, the market remains largely inactive, typical for distant-dated cryptocurrency price brackets where uncertainty compounds significantly.
Ethereum's historical volatility makes pinpointing exact price levels at specific timestamps inherently difficult. Over the past five years, ETH has traded across ranges exceeding 300% annually, with intraday moves of 5-10% commonplace during periods of elevated market activity. The 0% probability suggests either that the bracket in question sits far outside consensus expectations for May 2026 valuations, or that traders view the specificity of the settlement criteria—a single 1-minute candle at noon ET—as prohibitively difficult to predict, making the outcome functionally equivalent to a lottery ticket.
Catalysts affecting Ethereum's trajectory through 2026 include regulatory developments around staking and smart contract liability, competition from alternative layer-1 blockchains, macroeconomic conditions influencing risk asset demand, and potential protocol upgrades. Major announcements from the Ethereum Foundation or significant shifts in institutional adoption could reshape price expectations substantially. Traders monitoring this market should track broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, Bitcoin's dominance, and any material changes to Ethereum's technical roadmap or regulatory environment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$69K in lifetime turnover and $247K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $59K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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