Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,900 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,100 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,200 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,300 | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| 2,400 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on Ethereum's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 10 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's ETH/USDT pair. The settlement hinges on a single data point: whether that specific candle closes above a predetermined threshold. The 100% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in near-certainty of the outcome.
Historical precedent suggests that Ethereum's price volatility at specific timestamps typically ranges between 2–5% intraday, meaning the threshold price is likely set sufficiently low that ordinary market conditions would satisfy it. Markets settling on precise exchange prices at fixed times have historically resolved affirmatively when thresholds are calibrated conservatively. The specificity of using Binance's 1-minute candle rather than daily closes or multi-exchange averages reduces noise but also introduces execution risk tied to that venue's liquidity at noon ET.
Traders monitoring this position should track Ethereum's broader macro environment through May 2026, including regulatory developments affecting spot trading volumes and any Binance-specific operational changes. Recent volatility in crypto markets has been driven by Federal Reserve policy signals and institutional adoption trends. The settlement date falls mid-week, typically a period of moderate trading activity. Liquidity conditions at Binance during US market hours (noon ET) are generally robust, though any exchange maintenance or trading halts would affect final settlement mechanics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$103K in lifetime turnover and $235K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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