Trade: Will T1 make a roster change before July?

Market context

T1's League of Legends roster stability through the 2026 season will determine whether any personnel changes occur before the 30 June deadline. The current five-player lineup—Doran, Oner, Faker, Peyz, and Keria—represents the active competitive roster as listed on Liquipedia. Any official signing, departure, or benching to inactive status would trigger a "Yes" resolution, whilst name changes or aliases for existing players would not qualify.

The 43% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate expectations for roster continuity. Historically, T1 has maintained relatively stable rosters during competitive seasons, though the organisation has executed mid-season adjustments when performance warranted changes. The LCK's structured format and T1's consistent championship contention typically reduce roster churn compared to other regions, though injury, underperformance, or strategic shifts can prompt moves. Recent precedent from 2024–2025 suggests T1 prefers roster stability unless specific circumstances demand intervention.

Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement window. The LCK Spring Split concludes in April, providing a natural juncture for roster evaluation before Summer competition begins in May. Performance metrics during Spring playoffs will signal whether management considers changes necessary. Additionally, international competition schedules—including Mid-Season Invitational timing—may influence decisions on roster composition. Announcements from T1's official channels or Liquipedia updates will provide definitive confirmation of any roster moves. Contract negotiations and player availability in the transfer market remain secondary factors, as T1's financial position typically allows retention of key personnel.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/T1. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will T1 make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 43% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $233 if YES resolves true — a 133% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$102 in lifetime turnover and $13 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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