Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between VillianArc and Stallions Esports in the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 12 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "VillianArc" if VillianArc win the match against Stallions Esports. This market will resolve to "Stallions Esports" if Stallions Esports win the match against VillianArc. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: STS (-1.5) vs VillianArc (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
VillainArc and Stallions Esports will contest the lower bracket final of the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playoffs in Valorant on 12 May at 12:00 PM ET. The winner advances to the grand final, whilst the loser is eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled as a best-of-three series. Current order book pricing on Polymarket implies a 36% probability that VillainArc prevails, reflecting market participants' assessment that Stallions Esports enter as favourites.
Regional Valorant competition in MENA has historically featured volatile team performance across seasons, with roster changes and coaching adjustments producing significant swings in competitive standing. Lower bracket finals in single-elimination formats typically favour teams with recent match experience and momentum; teams arriving from the upper bracket often carry fatigue advantages offset by psychological pressure. Comparable VCL MENA matchups suggest that the 36% probability for the underdog reflects realistic upset potential rather than dismissal, particularly in best-of-three formats where individual map selection and meta adaptation matter substantially.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments announced before the settlement window closes on 12 May at 22:00 UTC. Scrim results or public practice footage released in the days preceding the match can shift market pricing. The timing of the match—occurring during the broader playoff window—means that bracket progression elsewhere in the tournament may influence team preparation intensity and strategic focus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: VillianArc vs Stallions Esports (BO3) - VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage Middle East Playo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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