Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and Pcific Esports in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Pcific Esports. This market will resolve to "Pcific Esports" if Pcific Esports win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: PCFIC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Natus Vincere face Pcific Esports in an upper bracket semifinal of the Valorant Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1, scheduled for 11 May at 16:00 UTC. The match determines progression in a tournament feeding into the broader Esports World Cup circuit, where qualification stakes are material for both organisations. Current Polymarket pricing reflects 100% implied probability for Na'Vi, suggesting the order book has consolidated around a heavily favoured outcome with minimal liquidity on the Pcific side.
Na'Vi's dominance in European Valorant remains the primary driver of this pricing. The organisation has maintained top-four regional standing across multiple seasons and consistently qualifies for international events. Pcific Esports, by contrast, operates at a lower competitive tier within EMEA, with limited recent tournament visibility at comparable levels. Historical matchups between established tier-one teams and emerging squads in qualifier stages typically produce decisive results, which the current probability reflects.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation and any schedule shifts, particularly given the seven-day delay clause in settlement terms. Roster changes or last-minute substitutions for either team could alter competitive balance, though Na'Vi's institutional stability makes such disruptions less likely. Injury reports or visa complications affecting either squad would constitute material catalysts. The settlement window closes 21:00 UTC on 11 May, creating a tight window between match conclusion and market resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: