Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket final match between Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 12 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Karmine Corp. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp meet in the upper bracket final of the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1 for Valorant, with the match scheduled for 12 May at 12:00 PM ET. The winner advances directly to the next stage, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability for Na'Vi, suggesting the market views them as the favoured side in this best-of-three encounter.
Na'Vi have established themselves as a consistent top-tier European Valorant competitor, whilst Karmine Corp represent France's strongest domestic talent. Historical matchups between elite European squads at this stage of qualification tournaments typically favour teams with deeper international experience and more recent LAN results. Na'Vi's participation in multiple international circuits this year provides a reference point for assessing their current form relative to Karmine Corp's primarily regional competition history.
Key variables for traders include roster stability—any last-minute player unavailability would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause—and the actual match timing, given the seven-day grace period before automatic 50-50 settlement. Schedule confirmations and any official announcements from tournament organisers should be monitored closely through the settlement window. Technical issues during play represent another edge case; the market's resolution criteria specify that matches beginning but not completing within the timeframe also resolve 50-50, creating a small but material tail risk beyond simple match outcome uncertainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$441 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $441 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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