Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between FURIA Esports and Leviatán Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against Leviatán Esports. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win the match against FURIA Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
FURIA Esports and Leviatán Esports will face off in an upper bracket quarterfinal of the VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs on 14 May at 17:00 ET. The winner advances directly to the semi-finals, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. This best-of-three match represents a critical juncture for both organisations in their pursuit of playoff progression and qualification for international competition.
The current 53% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a near-even assessment, though FURIA holds marginal favourability. Historically, FURIA has maintained stronger regional consistency and international exposure through prior VCT campaigns, whilst Leviatán has shown volatility in stage performances. The probability formation suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive, with neither team commanding decisive advantage. Recent VCT Americas results and head-to-head records between these rosters will inform whether the current odds reflect true match dynamics or represent value opportunities.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup adjustments prior to match start, as player availability can materially shift competitive balance. Schedule adherence matters substantially given the settlement window's seven-day buffer—any postponement beyond 21 May without resolution triggers a 50-50 settlement. Technical issues during broadcast or match cancellation would similarly result in equal split resolution. Tracking official VCT announcements and team communications through 14 May remains essential for position management.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$221 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $221 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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