Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if nocries signs with a professional Counter-Strike 2 organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A professional Counter-Strike 2 organization is any organization that fields a paid Counter-Strike 2 roster in official CS2 competitions. “Signs” refers to nocries entering into a paid contract with an organization to compete in Counter-Strike 2 for that organization. Trials or other relationships that do not include a signed professional playing contract will not count. Sponsorship agreements or other contracts that do not pay nocries to compete in Counter-Strike 2 for a specific organization will also not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? | 20% YES | 80% NO |
Nocries, a professional Counter-Strike 2 player, may or may not sign a paid contract with a recognised pro organisation by the end of June 2026. The market currently prices this outcome at 21% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest conviction that a signing occurs within the next eighteen months. A professional contract requires a formal agreement with an organisation fielding a paid roster in official CS2 competitions; trials, sponsorships, or unpaid arrangements do not qualify.
The 21% implied probability sits below the baseline signing rate for established pro players in competitive Counter-Strike. Historically, players at nocries's skill level who remain unsigned for extended periods face declining leverage in contract negotiations, particularly if roster stability improves across top-tier organisations. The CS2 competitive landscape has consolidated around a fixed set of franchised and semi-franchised teams since the game's launch in September 2023, reducing the total number of available paid slots compared to the Source era. Players unsigned after major off-season windows—typically occurring post-Major tournaments and at calendar year-ends—face longer gaps before the next recruitment cycle.
Traders should monitor Major tournament results and roster announcements from established organisations through late 2025 and early 2026, as these typically drive contract activity. Nocries's performance at upcoming ESL Pro League or Intel Extreme Masters events will signal his marketability to organisations. Any public statements from nocries or his representatives regarding his career intentions, as well as broader CS2 franchise expansions or team restructurings, would materially affect the probability. The settlement window closes 30 June 2026 at 23:59 ET.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $975 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 20%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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