Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 16 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Nirvana on 16 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for ThunderTalk's victory, suggesting near-parity between the two squads in market participants' assessment. This tight pricing indicates genuine uncertainty about the outcome, with neither team commanding substantial confidence from traders positioning ahead of the fixture.
Historical performance data from recent LPL seasons shows ThunderTalk has maintained mid-table consistency whilst EDward Gaming has experienced more volatility in tournament placements. When comparing similarly-matched teams in regional competition, outcomes typically hinge on meta adaptation and individual player form in the weeks preceding matches. The 51-49 split reflects this competitive balance rather than any decisive historical advantage, with traders pricing in both teams' capacity to execute under pressure.
Key variables affecting settlement include roster changes or last-minute substitutions, which the LPL occasionally announces within 48 hours of fixtures. Patch updates to League of Legends itself, released on alternating weeks, can shift strategic priorities and favour particular team compositions. Traders should monitor official LPL scheduling announcements for any postponements, as the seven-day delay clause creates resolution ambiguity. Match-day conditions—including server stability and technical pauses—remain secondary considerations but have occasionally influenced close series outcomes in regional play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $43 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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