Trade: LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between TLN Pirates and Karmine Corp Blue in the LFL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 20 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "TLN Pirates" if TLN Pirates win the match against Karmine Corp Blue. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp Blue" if Karmine Corp Blue win the match against TLN Pirates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
TLN Pirates face Karmine Corp Blue in the League of Legends French League (LFL) Upper bracket semifinal on 20 May, with the winner advancing to the grand final. The best-of-three format means the first team to win two maps progresses. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 54% implied probability for TLN Pirates victory, suggesting moderate confidence in the Pirates but acknowledging meaningful uncertainty around Karmine Corp Blue's chances.
Historical LFL playoff performance provides context for evaluating this matchup. Karmine Corp's main roster has consistently reached finals in recent seasons, though their Blue academy team operates at a different competitive tier. TLN Pirates qualified through the regular season and have shown variable form in bo3 formats. Previous LFL Upper bracket semifinals have often favoured teams with established playoff experience and stable rosters, though upsets occur when preparation and meta alignment favour the underdog. The current 54-46 split suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favouring either side.
Key catalysts include any last-minute roster changes or player absences announced before the 12:00 PM ET start time, patch updates affecting champion viability, and team scrim results if leaked through community channels. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 20 May, allowing seven hours post-match for resolution. Traders should monitor LFL official communications and team social media for scheduling confirmations, as delays beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of match outcome.
Wikipedia Context
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Lol TolhurstLaurence Andrew Tolhurst is an English musician, songwriter, producer, and author. He was a founder member of the Cure, for which he first played drums before switching to keyboards. He left the Cure in 1989, and later formed the bands Presence and Levinhurst. He has also published two books and developed the Curious Creatures podcast. His most recent studio
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Lola TungLola Marie Tung is an American actress, singer and model. She is known for playing Isabel "Belly" Conklin in the Amazon Prime Video series The Summer I Turned Pretty, which is based on the novel of the same name by Jenny Han. She made her Broadway debut as Eurydice in the Tony-winning musical Hadestown in 2024.
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LollandLolland is the fourth largest island of Denmark, with an area of 1,243 km2 (480 sq mi). Located in the Kattegat, Belts and Sund area, it is part of Region Sjælland. As of 1 January 2022, it has 57,618 inhabitants. Lolland is closely connected to the island of Falster to its east. The locality of Sundby forms a cross-island urban area with Nykøbing Falster, t
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LOL (Laughing Out Loud)LOL (Laughing Out Loud) is a 2008 French comedy film directed by Lisa Azuelos and starring Sophie Marceau, Christa Theret, and Alexandre Astier. The film is written by Azuelos and Delgado Nans, about a teenage girl whose life is split between her studies in a Parisian high school, her secret diary, her parents, her friends, and her boyfriends. Christa Theret
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at http://www.twitch.tv/otplol_. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from http://www.twitch.tv/otplol_. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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