Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 2 match between Shifters and Galions in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win the match against Galions. This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win the match against Shifters. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game Handicap: SHFT (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Shifters and Galions will compete in the lower bracket round two of the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs on 14 May at 2:00 PM ET, with the winner advancing further in the tournament bracket. The match is a best-of-three series, meaning the first team to win two games progresses. Currently, the Polymarket order book is pricing Shifters' chances at 28 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that Galions are favoured to win the matchup.
Lower bracket matches in League of Legends tournaments typically favour teams with recent competitive momentum and stable rosters. Galions' current pricing advantage suggests the market perceives them as having stronger recent form, more consistent player performance, or a superior head-to-head record against Shifters. Historical precedent in EMEA qualifier playoffs shows that teams entering the lower bracket from earlier losses often face psychological disadvantage, though roster quality and coaching adjustments can shift outcomes significantly. The 28 per cent probability for Shifters indicates the market views an upset as possible but unlikely given current information.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding roster changes, player substitutions, or coaching staff modifications between now and match day, as these can materially alter competitive balance. Scrim results and recent tournament performances by both organisations will provide updated information on form. The settlement window closes 15 May at 00:00 UTC, allowing approximately 22 hours post-match for official results confirmation. Any schedule delays beyond 7 May without a determined winner would trigger a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ewclol2026. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ewclol2026. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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