Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Maryville University and Supernova in the North American Challengers League Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 14 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Maryville University" if Maryville University win the match against Supernova. This market will resolve to "Supernova" if Supernova win the match against Maryville University. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5) | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Maryville University's League of Legends team faces Supernova in a best-of-three match within the North American Challengers League regular season, scheduled for 14 May at 4:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability favouring Maryville, suggesting the market perceives a substantial performance gap between the two squads. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in available roster information, recent match results, and historical head-to-head records within the Challengers circuit.
The Challengers League has historically featured volatile match outcomes, particularly when collegiate or semi-professional rosters face established organisations. Maryville's university affiliation typically correlates with less consistent performance than full-time professional teams, though the 86% probability indicates the market is pricing in either superior individual talent or recent form that distinguishes them from Supernova. Comparable fixtures in regional leagues show that favourites at this probability level win approximately 80–90% of the time, though upsets remain material when rosters lack depth or experience in high-pressure formats.
Traders should monitor for roster changes, player availability announcements, or schedule disruptions prior to the 14 May fixture. The settlement window extends to 15 May at 02:00 UTC, providing a 22-hour buffer for match completion. Any technical issues, server problems, or administrative delays extending beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk that the current order book may not fully price. Recent Challengers League broadcasts have been stable, though regional competition schedules occasionally shift without advance notice.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Maryville University vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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