Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Disguised and Dignitas in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 9 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Dignitas. This market will resolve to "Dignitas" if Dignitas win the match against Disguised. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Disguised will face Dignitas in a League of Legends best-of-three match during the LCS Regular Season on 9 May at 7:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 10% implied probability for a Disguised victory, pricing them as substantial underdogs in this matchup. This probability derives from real-time trading activity and the depth of liquidity available at various price levels on the platform.
Dignitas have established themselves as a more consistent performer in recent LCS competition, whilst Disguised have struggled to maintain competitive form throughout the season. Historical matchups between these organisations and their respective win rates against comparable opponents inform the current pricing. When underdog teams trade at single-digit probabilities in esports markets, it typically reflects a combination of head-to-head records, current roster strength, and recent tournament performance rather than sentiment alone.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions in the days preceding the match, as player availability significantly impacts competitive outcomes in League of Legends. The LCS schedule occasionally experiences delays or format changes announced through official channels; any such announcements would affect settlement conditions. Additionally, recent patch notes or meta shifts in the broader competitive League environment could alter team preparation strategies, though such developments typically influence both teams' capabilities rather than creating directional bias. The settlement window closes on 10 May at 04:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled match date for completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$529K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $527K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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