Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Conviction and Dorado Gaming in the North American Challengers League Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Conviction" if Conviction win the match against Dorado Gaming. This market will resolve to "Dorado Gaming" if Dorado Gaming win the match against Conviction. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 80% YES | 20% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 80% YES | 20% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Dorado Gaming (+1.5) | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% YES | 75% NO |
Conviction and Dorado Gaming are scheduled to face off in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the North American Challengers League regular season on 14 May at 7:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Conviction's victory at 88%, reflecting substantial confidence in their performance against Dorado Gaming. This probability is being formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where traders are pricing in available information about both teams' recent form and roster composition.
The Challengers League serves as a developmental circuit for North American talent, with team performance often volatile given the competitive nature of promotion pathways. Historical precedent suggests that higher-seeded or more established rosters in this league typically command 75–90% implied probabilities in matchups against less-proven opponents. The 88% mark for Conviction aligns with this range, suggesting traders view them as a clear favourite based on recent standings or head-to-head records within the current season.
Traders should monitor any roster announcements or injury disclosures from either organisation in the days preceding the match, as player availability significantly impacts competitive outcomes in esports. Schedule confirmations remain critical given the settlement window's 7-day buffer; any postponement beyond 21 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent Challengers League coverage from esports news outlets should be consulted for team form updates and any tactical adjustments either side may have implemented since their last fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33 in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $33 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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