Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Ursa and HAVU in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D, initially scheduled for May 3 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ursa" if Ursa win the match against HAVU. This market will resolve to "HAVU" if HAVU win the match against Ursa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs HAVU (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ursa and HAVU are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D on 3 May at 4:00 AM ET. The winner advances through the tournament bracket, whilst the loser faces elimination or relegation depending on the format structure. The match settlement window closes at 14:10 UTC on 3 May, allowing approximately ten hours from the scheduled start time for completion. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects 0% implied probability for Ursa victory, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in HAVU or minimal liquidity in the order book at present.
Historical precedent for regional Counter-Strike tournaments shows that HAVU, a Finnish organisation, has maintained competitive standing in European qualifiers, whilst Ursa's recent tournament appearances and roster stability remain less documented in major circuit coverage. The 0% probability on Polymarket likely reflects either a significant skill gap perceived by early traders or an absence of substantive position-taking at current prices rather than certainty about the outcome.
Traders should monitor official NODWIN announcements regarding any schedule changes, roster confirmations, or technical delays that could trigger the 7-day postponement clause leading to 50-50 resolution. Recent esports tournament coverage indicates fixture delays remain common, particularly for early morning ET time slots accommodating international schedules. Confirmation of both teams' final rosters and any last-minute substitutions would provide material information before the settlement window closes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HAVU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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