Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Sashi Esport and Oxuji Esports in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Sashi Esport" if Sashi Esport win the match against Oxuji Esports. This market will resolve to "Oxuji Esports" if Oxuji Esports win the match against Sashi Esport. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Sashi Esport and Oxuji Esports are scheduled to compete in Round 4 of the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage on 15 May at 04:00 ET. The match is a best-of-three Counter-Strike fixture. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 61% probability of Sashi Esport winning, reflecting market participants' assessment of relative team strength and recent form heading into the group stage.
NODWIN's Clutch Series has established itself as a mid-tier competitive Counter-Strike tournament with consistent scheduling and reliable match completion. Historical data from comparable regional tournaments suggests that group stage matches at this level typically proceed as scheduled, with cancellations or extended delays occurring in fewer than 5% of fixtures. The 61% implied probability for Sashi Esport aligns with typical market pricing for a team favoured by roughly 1.5 to 1 odds, suggesting the market views them as the stronger side without overwhelming confidence.
Traders should monitor team roster announcements and any schedule changes from NODWIN in the days preceding the match. Recent player transfers or stand-in arrangements can materially shift competitive balance. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on 15 May, providing a tight window for match completion; any delays pushing beyond 22 May would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Fixture confirmations and team preparation statements typically emerge 48 hours before scheduled play, offering potential catalysts for probability shifts on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$510 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $510 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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