Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and Vitality in the IEM Atlanta Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Vitality. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natus Vincere face Vitality in a Counter-Strike 2 quarterfinal at IEM Atlanta, scheduled for 15 May at 4:30PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Natus Vincere at 24 cents, implying a 24% probability of victory in this best-of-three format. Vitality command the favourite's position at 76 cents, reflecting their recent form and perceived map pool strength heading into the playoffs.
Vitality have maintained a higher tier-one event win rate over the past eighteen months, with consistent performances at majors including recent top-four finishes at PGL Major Copenhagen and ESL Pro League Season 19. Natus Vincere, whilst historically dominant, have experienced roster transitions and inconsistent results in 2024, particularly in online qualifiers. The 24% implied probability aligns with historical matchup data favouring Vitality in recent head-to-heads, though Natus Vincere retain sufficient firepower to exploit map-specific advantages in a three-map series.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and any last-minute roster changes before the 15 May fixture. IEM Atlanta's official schedule and any weather-related delays affecting the venue in Atlanta remain relevant, though the tournament structure typically accommodates rescheduling within the settlement window. Map veto announcements, typically released hours before matches, will provide tactical information that could shift probabilities if either team's preparation appears compromised. Recent scrim results and public practice footage, often discussed in esports community channels, may signal confidence shifts in the final hours before match start.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38 in lifetime turnover and $111K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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