Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between Gentle Mates and magic in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gentle Mates and magic are scheduled to compete in Round 5 of the PGL Astana Group Stage on 13 May at 1:00 AM ET in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match. The current order book on Polymarket prices Gentle Mates at 62% implied probability, reflecting modest favouritism despite limited recent head-to-head data between these rosters. PGL Astana represents a significant LAN tournament, and group stage outcomes often hinge on team preparation depth and map pool compatibility rather than raw ranking alone.
Historical precedent suggests that matches between lower-tier competitive teams at major tournaments exhibit higher volatility than top-eight fixtures. Gentle Mates' recent form and roster stability relative to magic's current lineup will be material factors; teams that have undergone roster changes in the weeks preceding group play typically underperform initial seeding expectations. The 62% probability reflects uncertainty around both teams' current competitive standing and preparation level.
Traders should monitor official PGL Astana communications for any schedule adjustments, player availability announcements, or last-minute roster changes prior to the settlement window closure on 13 May at 11:00 AM ET. Fixture delays beyond seven days without a determined winner trigger a 50-50 resolution. Map bans and recent scrim results, if publicly disclosed, may shift the order book materially in the hours before match start. Liquidity conditions on Polymarket's order book will likely tighten as the match approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$997 in lifetime turnover and $57K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $997 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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