Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Haunted House and Change The Game in the Asian Champions League Group B, initially scheduled for May 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Haunted House" if Haunted House win the match against Change The Game. This market will resolve to "Change The Game" if Change The Game win the match against Haunted House. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: CTG (-1.5) vs Haunted House (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Haunted House and Change The Game are scheduled to compete in a Counter-Strike lower bracket quarterfinal within the Asian Champions League Group B on 13 May at 01:00 ET. The match is a best-of-three format, with settlement occurring at 11:30 UTC on the same day. Currently, the Polymarket order book reflects a 100% implied probability favouring Haunted House, indicating either exceptionally strong conviction in their victory or minimal liquidity at current price levels.
The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny given typical volatility in esports matchups. Asian regional Counter-Strike tournaments have historically produced competitive outcomes across tier-two teams, with upsets occurring when preparation gaps or tactical mismatches emerge. Change The Game's recent form and roster stability relative to Haunted House would determine whether this probability reflects genuine dominance or represents an artefact of thin order book depth. Comparable lower-bracket matches in regional leagues often settle with winners holding 60–75% implied probability pre-match, suggesting the current reading may be distorted by limited trading activity.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments closer to the 13 May date, as esports fixtures frequently shift. Announcements regarding player availability or team withdrawals from the Asian Champions League could trigger rapid repricing. The seven-day delay clause in the settlement terms creates additional risk; any postponement beyond 20 May without a determined winner would resolve the market to 50-50, effectively voiding current positions. Fixture confirmations from the tournament organiser typically emerge 48–72 hours before match time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/acl. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Change The Game (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/acl. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: