Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Heroic and NIP in the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 27 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against NIP. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against Heroic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Heroic and NIP face off in an upper bracket quarterfinal of the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs on 27 May at 08:30 ET, competing in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability for Heroic victory, suggesting modest confidence in the Danish roster over their Swedish counterparts. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity on the platform's order book, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the match date approaches.
Heroic and NIP represent two of Europe's most established Counter-Strike organisations, though their recent form trajectories differ markedly. Heroic has maintained stronger consistency in tier-one competition over the past six months, whilst NIP have experienced roster instability and inconsistent results in 2024–2025. Historical head-to-head records between these sides show competitive matchups, but Heroic's current lineup has demonstrated superior map pool flexibility and anti-stratting capability in recent LAN events. The 54% probability reflects this marginal advantage rather than overwhelming favouritism.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability or last-minute roster changes, which remain common in professional Counter-Strike. Schedule adherence is critical given the settlement window's seven-day buffer; any delay beyond 3 June without a completed match triggers a 50-50 resolution. Fixture confirmation and any pre-match statements from either organisation typically emerge 48–72 hours before scheduled play. Recent performance data from preceding Stake Ranked matches will provide the most relevant form indicators for either side entering this quarterfinal.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/starladder. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/starladder. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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