Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between FURIA and Gentle Mates in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
FURIA, the Brazilian esports organisation, face Gentle Mates in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 12 May at 07:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability for FURIA victory, pricing Gentle Mates at roughly 19%. This probability spread reflects FURIA's established standing within professional Counter-Strike, where they consistently compete at tier-one events, whilst Gentle Mates operate at a considerably lower competitive tier.
FURIA's recent tournament performances and roster stability provide context for the current pricing. The organisation has maintained competitive lineups across major PGL events and international competitions, typically advancing from group stages against lower-ranked opposition. Gentle Mates lack comparable tournament history at this level, with limited datasets from major LAN events. Historical matchups between tier-one Brazilian teams and regional challengers in group-stage formats show win rates favourable to the established side in roughly 75–85% of cases, aligning with current market pricing.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes prior to the 12 May fixture, as substitutions can materially shift match dynamics. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 12 May, providing a six-hour buffer after the scheduled start time. Any technical issues, forfeits, or delays extending beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Fixture confirmations from PGL's official channels and team announcements remain the primary catalysts affecting probability adjustments in the hours before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26K in lifetime turnover and $103K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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