Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between fnatic and TDK in the CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against TDK. This market will resolve to "TDK" if TDK win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5) | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
fnatic and TDK meet in the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 of the CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 14 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for fnatic victory, suggesting the market views TDK as slight favourites or expects a competitive fixture. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity as participants price in team form, roster composition, and recent tournament performance across the CCT circuit.
fnatic's historical standing in European Counter-Strike provides context for the current odds. The organisation has maintained competitive rosters through various iterations, though their recent trajectory in tier-one competition has been inconsistent. TDK, by contrast, represents a newer or reorganised entity in the competitive landscape, and their placement as implied favourites suggests the market has assessed their current squad strength favourably relative to fnatic's present lineup. Comparable quarterfinal matchups in CCT events typically see tighter odds when both teams carry similar recent results, so the 45% mark indicates meaningful uncertainty rather than dismissal of fnatic's chances.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding roster changes or player availability through to the settlement window closing on 14 May at 20:00 UTC. The seven-day delay clause means any postponement beyond 21 May without resolution triggers a 50-50 settlement, creating a tail risk. Recent CCT Europe fixtures have generally proceeded on schedule, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances remain possible. Confirmation of final lineups and any last-minute substitutions will likely move the order book in the final hours before match start.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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