Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Favbet and Walczaki in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 14 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Favbet" if Favbet win the match against Walczaki. This market will resolve to "Walczaki" if Walczaki win the match against Favbet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Favbet and Walczaki face off in Round 4 of the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage on 14 May at 10:00 AM ET in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match. The current order book on Polymarket prices Favbet's victory at 36%, implying Walczaki as the 64% favourite. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and reflects the relative strength assessments traders hold of both rosters heading into the fixture.
Favbet competes in the Eastern European competitive scene and has shown inconsistent results across recent tournaments, whilst Walczaki operates within a similar regional ecosystem. Historical precedent from NODWIN events suggests that teams with established group-stage momentum tend to extend their advantages, particularly in best-of-three formats where map selection and preparation compound early advantages. The 36% probability for Favbet indicates traders view them as underdogs, consistent with their recent form trajectory relative to Walczaki's positioning.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes through official NODWIN communications and team social channels, as substitutions can materially shift map pool dynamics. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 14 May, allowing a ten-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time. Fixture delays beyond seven days without a determined winner trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk considerations for positions held through potential postponements. Venue connectivity and technical issues have historically affected Eastern European online tournaments, making match completion status a relevant monitoring point.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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