Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Eternal Fire and magic in the Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Eternal Fire" if Eternal Fire win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against Eternal Fire. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: MGC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Eternal Fire and magic are scheduled to compete in Round 2 of the Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs on 2 May at 1:30PM ET in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match. The winner advances further in the qualifier bracket, making this a consequential fixture for both rosters' tournament progression. Polymarket's order book currently reflects a 100% implied probability for Eternal Fire, indicating the crowd perceives them as heavy favourites to secure the match victory.
Eternal Fire has established itself as a top-tier competitive Counter-Strike outfit, regularly competing in high-level international tournaments and maintaining consistent placements against elite opposition. Magic, by contrast, operates at a lower competitive tier within the regional qualifier circuit. Historical precedent from similar closed qualifier matchups suggests that when established professional teams face qualifier-level opposition, the probability distribution often reflects a decisive skill gap, though upsets do occur at non-negligible rates in best-of-three formats where map selection and momentum shifts can influence outcomes.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation closer to the scheduled date, as qualifier playoffs occasionally experience reschedules due to player availability or technical issues. The 7-day resolution window provides some buffer, but any announcement regarding roster changes, stand-ins, or fixture delays would materially affect market dynamics. Additionally, the specific map pool for this qualifier round and any recent form data from both teams' preceding matches would offer context for assessing whether the current 100% probability adequately reflects underlying competitive reality.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/starladder. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$43K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/starladder. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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