Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket round 2 match between Atreides and Lilmix in the CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 6 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Atreides" if Atreides win the match against Lilmix. This market will resolve to "Lilmix" if Lilmix win the match against Atreides. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: Atreides (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Atreides and Lilmix are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 6 May 2026 at 09:45 ET as part of the CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs lower bracket round two. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Atreides, indicating the market has priced in an overwhelming expectation of their victory. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a substantial skill or form advantage, though such certainty in esports competition warrants scrutiny given the inherent volatility of tactical team games.
Historical precedent in CCT Europe Challengers matches shows that lower bracket encounters frequently produce upsets when the higher-seeded team underestimates opposition or faces unexpected tactical adjustments. Teams operating in challenger-tier tournaments often display inconsistent preparation and roster stability compared to tier-one circuits, creating conditions where a 100% probability rarely reflects genuine match dynamics. Recent CCT Europe fixtures have demonstrated that even favoured sides can falter against motivated challengers, particularly in best-of-three formats where a single map loss compounds pressure.
Key variables for traders include roster confirmation and recent scrim results, which typically surface 24–48 hours before match day. Any last-minute roster changes, player illness, or technical issues affecting either team could trigger market movement. The settlement window closes at 19:45 UTC on match day, allowing minimal reaction time post-match. Monitor CCT's official schedule and team social media for any postponement announcements, as delays beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/cct_cs4. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/cct_cs4. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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